Thinking differently and treading carefully in this world
We believe it is possible to invest without the complexity, in a transparent predefined way.
We focus on two principal beliefs:
Belief 1: Equity stocks and Dynamic Cash
Avoid Complexity
We believe a simple mix of “equity stocks” alongside “dynamic cash” gives investors a clear and undisputed risk on / risk off foundation. CommanderAM’s approach does not rely on other, often used, complications within equity market strategies:
No complex financial derivatives (e.g. forwards, futures, options, swaps)
No “short selling”
No “leverage”
No “day trading”, high turnover of stocks or “high-frequency trading”
No attempt to profit from currency bets – CommanderAM’s investment approach keeps the dynamic cash element in the same currency as its stock
Belief 2: Rotation and Compound Growth
Thinking Differently
Other people often talk about their ability to successfully predict global events, economic trends and future moves in asset prices, beating the markets.
Robert Shiller (2013 Nobel Prize winner) famously argued that the volatility observed in financial markets appears far too high to be compatible with the idea of fully rational pricing. This can be seen in the weekly moves of global equity markets.
Data: MSCI ACWI ($), 1 Jan. 1988 to 30 Jun. 2026. Sources: MSCI & CommanderAM.
We believe an investment approach should be transparent and based on predefined rules, uniting two powerful principles:
Continual rotation of individual stock prices within equity markets.
The Power of Compound Growth
The 4 main sources of recurring compound growth in CommanderAM's investment framework
Through systematic discipline, CommanderAM aims to capture value that others miss due to short-term emotional reactions and market inefficiencies.
Tracking Rotation
Since the late 1990s, CommanderAM has sought to identify this enduring “rotation” within markets, which plays out at several levels:
Whole Market Rotation
On occasions, geopolitical events can cause the whole market to move up and down. Nonetheless, even at a “crisis” point, there is often still significant diversity and rotation within markets, as was seen in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
Regional and Sector Rotation
More commonly, different sectors and regions are moving in different directions depending on macro-economic forces, e.g. during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 2000 dot-com crash, 2012 Euro crisis, 2020 COVID pandemic, 2022 Ukraine war, 2025 US tariffs, 2026 Venezuela and Iran conflicts.
Stock Rotation
All the while, each of the stocks within a sector and/or region is continually shifting depending on their own individual circumstances, e.g. Tesla moves differently to other stocks in the auto industry.
Illustrating Rotation
Commander Confidence Rating
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Example 1: Whole Market Rotation
22 May 2020: The chart above illustrates a rotational snapshot during the COVID pandemic, when many companies and sectors struggled - the whole market was low in the rotational cycle. Although some sectors and specific stocks did well (e.g. the Health Care sector and work-from-home tech. firms like Microsoft).
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Example 1: Whole Market Rotation
28 August 2020: By the end of August there was widespread positive whole market rotation as stocks prices reacted to fiscal and monetary intervention during Covid-19.
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Example 2: Sector Rotation
31 July 2015: The financial (black rectangle) and IT (blue) sectors are low in the rotational cycle, while the consumer staples (orange) and health care (red) sectors are high in the cycle.
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Example 2: Sector Rotation
30 December 2016: 18 months later and the financial (black rectangle) and IT (blue) sectors have had positive rotation and are now high in the rotational cycle, while the consumer staples (orange) and health care (red) sectors are low in the cycle.
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Example 3: Sector Rotation
16 May 2025: Another example of sector rotation, with consumer discretionary (yellow), health care (red) and IT (blue) low in the rotational cycle, while the financial sector (black) is split.
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Example 3: Sector Rotation
28 August 2026: 15 months later and the sectors have rotated - financials (black), health care (red) and IT (blue) have had positive rotation and are now high in the rotational cycle, while the consumer staples sector (yellow) has remained low in the cycle.
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Example 4: Stock Rotation
2 August 2024: An example of a mixed market with a dispersion of the stock highlighting individual stock rotation within sectors and across markets.
The Commander Confidence Rating (CCR) is based on a long-term Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and helps illustrate this stock price rotation in a bundle of stocks at moments in time.
